Ray Fair’s vote equations use economic data and past election results to forecast the vote. This project compares his 2026 House forecast with live predictions from Kalshi, PredictIt and Polymarket.
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House popular vote
Fair
Kalshi
Polymarket
Chance Democrats win the vote
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Median Democratic share
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Chance Democrats win the House (seats)
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Chance Democrats exceed each share of the two-party vote
FairKalshiPolymarket
Chance Democrats win the popular vote over time
Fair (each update since Dec 2025)KalshiPolymarket
Market prices start Oct 16, when this page began saving them.
Senate control
Democrats need 8 of these 14 races for 51 seats.
State
Now
Kalshi
24h
PredictIt
Polymarket
Pivot state
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Senate control contract
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Chance Democrats control the Senate, over time
Pivot state (Kalshi)KalshiPredictItPolymarket
The House equation
Fair's prediction of the Democratic two-party vote share, .
The equation uses economic conditions and a few structural political facts. It is not adjusted for current events.